Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but each side has has important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
